Swiss mortgage interest rate forecast

Our assessment of the mortgage market

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How will mortgage interest rates develop over the coming months? Find out how our experts view developments on the mortgage and real estate markets.

In brief: What the latest SNB decision from 24 September 2026 means

Data valid as of: 24.09.2026
Copy deadline: 24.09.2026

  • The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is leaving the policy rate  at zero percent for the time being, but is likely to move away from the zero interest rate mark in the medium term.
  • This means both Saron and fixed-rate mortgages are likely to gradually increase slightly over the coming months, but both remain attractive.
  • Saron mortgages are expected to stay the somewhat cheaper option.

Current economic situation at a glance

The Swiss economy has recovered steadily over the course of the year and returned to significant growth in the second quarter. At a rate of almost 2 percent compared to the previous quarter, it has risen as sharply as in any other full year. This is the strongest growth surge since the recovery from the coronavirus pandemic five years ago. It is positive that, although this strength was mainly driven by the pharmaceutical industry, all other sectors also made gains, which points to a broad-based recovery. It is also encouraging that recent meagre investments are picking up again. This is partly because companies are once again looking to the future with greater optimism, and suggests that the positive trends will continue in the second half of the year.

The strong growth is not being accompanied by rising price pressure. Inflation  remains low and well within the target range of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), although it has moved up slightly to 0.8 percent recently. However, this was mainly due to higher energy prices and import costs associated with the weaker Swiss franc. By contrast, domestic price pressure remains low, as does the pressure on the Swiss National Bank to tighten monetary policy. It means the SNB is in an extremely comfortable position and decided at its meeting on 24 September 2026 to leave the policy rate unchanged. Its monetary policy, in turn, continues to appear particularly expansionary.

Switzerland remains an exception by international standards as a result. Inflation has stayed well above-target in many countries, which has led the major central banks in the USA and the eurozone to hike their policy rates recently, while interest rates traded on the capital market  have also risen considerably. The Swiss market was also unable to fully escape the rise in global capital market interest rates.

Our interest rate forecast at a glance

Forecast for3 months6 months12 months
Forecast for
Saron
 3 months
interest rates moving less than 0.25%
 6 months
interest rates rising between 0.25% and 0.49%
 12 months
Interest rates rising 0.50% or more
Forecast for
5-year fixed-rate mortgae
 3 months
interest rates moving less than 0.25%
 6 months
interest rates rising between 0.25% and 0.49%
 12 months
interest rates rising between 0.25% and 0.49%
Forecast for
7-year fixed-rate mortgage
 3 months
interest rates moving less than 0.25%
 6 months
interest rates rising between 0.25% and 0.49%
 12 months
interest rates rising between 0.25% and 0.49%
Forecast for
10-year fixed-rate mortgage
 3 months
interest rates moving less than 0.25%
 6 months
interest rates rising between 0.25% and 0.49%
 12 months
interest rates rising between 0.25% and 0.49%

Key for table 〉 ­­

Pressure on the SNB to act is likely to remain moderate for the time being, as there is no sign of a significant rise in inflation. However, with economic growth picking up again, a weaker Swiss franc and international central banks already noticeably hiking interest rates, the current environment offers the SNB a window of opportunity to normalize monetary policy and return to positive policy rates in the medium term. We expect it to make use of this opportunity cautiously. In this context and in light of global pressure for higher capital market interest rates, fixed-rate mortgage interest rates are also anticipated to rise slightly.

Current interest rates

Mortgage rates in Switzerland have fallen significantly since their highs in 2023. The Saron’s decline was particularly sharp. After the SNB’s policy rate cuts, the 3-month Saron is now close to zero percent again. Fixed-rate mortgages also became much cheaper. However, they have become considerably more expensive again since this summer. This is due to higher capital market interest rates in Switzerland as well. In the coming months, the Saron is forecast to remain largely stable initially, while we expect interest rates on fixed-rate mortgages to rise slightly. The SNB is likely to leave the policy rate at zero percent in its next assessment on 10 December 2026. In March 2027, however, we anticipate an initial increase to 0.25 percent and a second step up to 0.5 percent later in the year. This means that the Saron is likely to rise again over the course of the coming year.

In percent

The graphic shows the interest performance for 5- and 10-year fixed-rate mortgages and the 3-month Saron since the 2008 financial crisis. After a long period of low interest rates, the interest rate level rose significantly from 2022. Mortgage interest rates fell again after the subsequent easing of monetary policy. However, the trend has varied considerably over recent months. While the Saron has remained largely stable, interest rates on fixed-rate mortgages have risen again due to higher long-term capital market interest rates.
Source: SIX, figures up to and including December 2021 based on Libor and from January 2022 on Saron.

Single-family homes and condominiums

Prices on the Swiss real estate market have largely risen recently. Both single-family homes and owner-occupied apartments increased in price compared to the previous quarter. The price trend for owner-occupied apartments strengthened once again, while the prices of single-family homes also rose again after the weaker performance at the start of the year. It means the owner-occupied property market is robust, despite the recent growth in interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages. This is due to the fact that overall financing costs remain low, particularly for money market mortgages. At the same time, supply remains scarce, as it is still the case that only a small amount of new housing is being built. The price trend for rental apartments has also picked up again. The dampening effects of the earlier reference interest rate  cuts are now likely to have largely dissipated, while the scarce housing supply continues to put upward pressure on rents.

Price index, January 2000 = 100

The graphic shows the price trend for single-family homes, rental properties and apartments. After prices for owner-occupied properties and, in particular, single-family homes rose sharply during the COVID-19 crisis, there were signs of normalization. Since the end of 2021, however, we are again seeing a trend of rising prices.
Source: SFSO

Interested in real estate as an investment opportunity? In our Investment compass under “Market overview”, you will find an analysis of the current situation on the Swiss real estate market.

What our experts say

“The owner-occupied property market is robust despite the recent growth in interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages. This is due to the fact that overall financing costs remain low.“

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Pascaline Teyssier, specialist in mortgages at PostFinance

Fixed-rate mortgage or Saron mortgage?

  • This graphic shows the development of the attractiveness of fixed-rate mortgages. As part of efforts to tackle inflation, Swiss policy rates rose sharply after the COVID-19 crisis. This made fixed-rate mortgages more attractive. The easing of monetary policy made Saron mortgages less expensive again and, in turn, more attractive.
    Attractiveness of fixed-rate mortgages 1980–2026. Source: PostFinance Ltd, SNB, SIX, Web Financial Group, SECO, KOF Attractiveness of fixed-rate mortgages 1980–2026. Source: PostFinance Ltd, SNB, SIX, Web Financial Group, SECO, KOF

    Attractiveness of fixed-rate mortgages

    Saron mortgages remain attractive compared to fixed-rate mortgages. This is indicated by the recent further decline in PostFinance’s fixed-rate mortgage attractiveness index. While long-term financing costs have risen over the past few months, the costs of money market  financing are unlikely to change much for the time being. From spring 2027, however, we expect policy rates to increase, which may mean Saron mortgages will become slightly more expensive again. We also anticipate that interest rates on fixed-rate mortgages will climb slightly. This may reduce the cost advantage of Saron mortgages slightly, but it will remain for the time being.

  • The interest rate of the fixed-rate mortgage remains fixed across the selected term. The interest rate of the fixed-rate mortgage remains fixed across the selected term.

    When is a fixed-rate mortgage suitable?

    A fixed-rate mortgage is ideal when interest rates are low and expected to rise. You’re protected against interest rate rises and can plan your costs precisely.

    Our tip: with a forward mortgage, you can secure your personal interest rate up to 18 months in advance.

  • The interest rate is based on the current market situation. The interest rate is based on the current market situation.

    When is a Saron mortgage suitable?

    The Saron mortgage is suitable when interest rates are high to average and when rate cuts are expected. The interest rate can fluctuate significantly during the term, depending on the market situation. However, the option of switching to a PostFinance fixed-rate mortgage during the term means you remain flexible.

Which is the right mortgage for me?

Gain an overview of the conditions for the fixed-rate mortgage and the Saron mortgage with our mortgage comparison.

Compare mortgage models

IndicatorsQ4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026202420252026
Indicators
GDP growth
 Q4 2025
1,2%
 Q1 2026
0,5%
 Q2 2026
2,8%
 2024
1,3%
 2025
1,0%
 2026
1,0%
Indicators
Inflation
 Q4 2025
0,1%
 Q1 2026
0,2%
 Q2 2026
0,6%
 2024
1,1%
 2025
0,2%
 2026
0,6%
Indicators
Unemployment
 Q4 2025
3,0%
 Q1 2026
3,2%
 Q2 2026
3,0%
 2024
2,5%
 2025
2,8%
 2026
3,2%
Indicators
Net immigration
Q4 2025
27‘000
 Q1 2026
21‘000
 Q2 2026
14‘000
 2024
83‘000
 2025
75‘000
 2026
70‘000
Indicators
EUR/CHF exchange rate
 Q4 2025
0,93
 Q1 2026
0,91
 Q2 2026
0,92
 2024
0,95
 2025
0,94
 2026
0,92

Source: Bloomberg, Communify Ltd, BfS

  • Forecasting is a well-founded assessment, not a certainty. Whether now is the right time for you very much depends on your personal risk appetite, your financial situation and your individual needs.​

    If interest rates are falling: if you expect interest rates to continue to fall, a Saron mortgage may be an attractive option to benefit from the cuts, depending on the interest rate level.​

    If interest rates are rising: if you are expecting an interest rate rise or budget security is very important for you, it may be a good idea to fix the conditions over the long term with a fixed-rate mortgage.

    Our specialists will be happy to help you find the right strategy.

    Arrange a consultation appointment

  • The SNB policy rate can affect mortgage interest rates. This usually happens quickly with variable models such as the Saron mortgage, as these are based directly on short-term money market rates. Fixed-rate mortgages, however, are driven more by long-term capital market interest rates (swap rates) which to some extent already take into account anticipated future monetary policy and inflation. If a policy rate change is expected by the markets, its effect on fixed-rate mortgages could in many cases already be reflected in the interest rates beforehand.

  • Choosing the term is a strategic decision. Long terms (7–10 years or more) provide you with interest rate security over a long period of time, but are often slightly more expensive. Shorter terms (2–5 years) are usually cheaper, but require you to address the interest rate situation again sooner. Splitting is a popular strategy: you can split your mortgage into several tranches with different terms if required. This spreads the interest rate risk and avoids having to renew the total amount at once at potentially unfavourable conditions.

  • The cost advantage of Saron mortgages may narrow slightly, but it will remain for the time being.

    Find out more

  • The right mortgage for you depends greatly on your personal risk appetite, your financial situation and your individual needs.​ Our specialists will be happy to help you find the right strategy for you. 

    Find out more

    Arrange a consultation appointment

  • Our interest rate forecasts are produced by our economists on the basis of in-depth analyses of the global and national economic situation, inflation trends and the monetary policy of central banks. They represent a likely development. However, ongoing or unforeseen economic or political events can have an impact on interest rate developments at any time. Forecasts should therefore always be seen as a guide and not a guarantee.

  • Prices are mainly influenced by supply and demand. Low mortgage interest rates can generally boost demand for home ownership, as financing costs fall. This can lead to stable or rising real estate prices. Conversely, if interest rates rise sharply, this can dampen demand – but it doesn’t have to, especially if supply remains tight. Political decisions on mortgage lending can also influence demand for residential property and therefore property prices.

    More information on the development of real estate prices

  • Yes, that is possible. With a forward mortgage, you can secure the current interest rates today – even if your existing mortgage is not set to expire for several months (e.g. in six, 12 or up to 18 months). Depending on the lead time, requested term and market situation, an interest rate premium (forward premium) may be incurred. In return you will be protected against any interest rate rises until your current mortgage expires. Please contact us for a non-binding quotation.

    Contact us

This document and the information and statements it contains are for information purposes only and do not constitute either an invitation to tender, a solicitation, an offer or a recommendation to buy the related products. The customer or third parties are responsible for their own actions and bear sole responsibility for compliance with legal and regulatory provisions and guidelines. PostFinance has used sources considered reliable and credible. However, PostFinance cannot guarantee that this information is correct, accurate, reliable, up to date or complete and excludes any liability to the extent permitted by law. Information on interest rates and prices is up to date, but the actual development may deviate from these forecasts at any time. The content of this document is based on various assumptions. This means that the information and opinions are not a fixed basis for your financing decision. We recommend consulting an expert before making decisions.

Full or partial reproduction is not permitted without the prior written consent of PostFinance.

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